News · Method · October 13, 2026
Why we backtest claims, not just strategies
Most backtests ask whether a strategy made money. We ask whether a statement has been true before.
A backtest usually answers one question: would this strategy have made money? We use the same history to answer a different one: when someone said this before, what happened next?
The answer is rarely a simple yes or no. A claim can hold in most periods and fail in one, and the failure is often the most useful part. Our agents report the conditions under which a claim broke down, instead of averaging them away.
The result is a view of the report that a person can argue with: what was claimed, how it did in the past, and what it would mean for the portfolio today. The decision stays with the people who run the money.